Every time there is a bear market, all kinds of terrible news start to come out. All kinds of extreme price predictions began to dance, and there were even people who didn’t understand anything saying that Bitcoin would go to zero. Today I will share a Bitcoin price that can never fall: Bitcoin’s miner shutdown price.
Mining cost
As we all know, Bitcoin mining will have token rewards. Still, mining also has costs: first, you need to have a miner, and second, the miner runs 7*24 hours, and the electricity consumption is beyond the belief of many new miners. The amount of electricity consumed by Bitcoin mining has long surpassed that of a medium-sized country like Kazakhstan.
The miner shutdown price refers to the price at which the income of Bitcoin mining is no longer enough to cover the cost of electricity. If the income is lower than the electricity price, it will be a loss for miners to continue mining. In this case, the choice of normal people is to choose to turn off the miner rather than continue mining. If all miners choose to shut down, Bitcoin will go to zero. Of course, this situation is impossible to happen, so this price cannot be broken below.
Current shutdown price
There is a concept first: the shutdown price of different miners is different because their power, hash rate, power consumption, etc., are different. The miners we discuss below only discuss professional miners.
Let’s first look at the 10 most cost-effective models (including Avalon, Ebit, Whatsminer, Antminer, etc.), three of which have fallen below the shutdown price (Ebit E9+, Avalon A721, Whatsminer M3). Unfortunately, this also means that now all non-professional miners have started to lose money, and even professional miners who have done poorly have started to lose money.
The last ranked Whatsminer has a shutdown price of almost 5W USD and then look at the professional miners with the highest cost performance and the best technology. On the other hand, Bitmain’s Antminer series is still incredible, far from the shutdown price.
Among them, I learned from a particular channel that the shutdown price of Antminer S19 XP is $6,000. This is the lowest cost that the technology can achieve at present, and it is also the price that I think is impossible to fall below.
Reasonable income
If you are a miner, the cost cannot be only the electricity bill.
First, the miner will be depreciated. It is almost scrapped in 4-5 years as an ordinary household electronic product. However, the miner runs at a total capacity of 24 hours a day, and it is not bad if it can run stably for 3 years. So we first calculate it by 3 years.
Second, the cost of venue fees, labor costs, etc. To be a professional miner requires a full-time investment, which is also a cost.
Reasonable profit. Invested time, energy, and risk, at least 20~30% profit.
Taking the Antminer S19 Pro as an example, the market price is about $5,200, depreciated for 3 years, and the cost is $170 a year. The current currency price is 4W USD, the daily mining revenue is 15.71 USD (after removing the electricity bill), the annual revenue is 5700 USD, and the depreciation cost is 3900 USD. At present, the income is still good, and the cost is almost recovered in one year, and the net profit is made in the next two years.
But if the currency price falls to $2W, the daily income is $7.86, the annual income is $2,800, and the one-year income is $1,100 after depreciation; if the currency price falls to $1.5W, the daily income is $5.89, and the annual income is $2,000, minus one year of depreciation. The gain is $314, not even a reasonable profit.
In addition, here is one of the best miners in the world as an example, and the income of the best mining company is calculated. At this price, it means that every other company loses money or even goes out of business. And even within Bitmain, miners can’t use the latest miner.